Monday, July 6, 2009

Markets are on a big move!!

Most main markets are very highly correlated (correlation is a statistical measure, it indicates strength of relationship between data). Specifically, the big falls and rises tend to happen in tandem. DAX and CAC, or FTSE and DowJones on a daily basis on average might move by differing magnitude and direction. However, what correltion tells us is that there are some moves that tend to co-occur. A simple analysis of the indices data shows that it is the large moves that tend to co-occur most often.

Today the 6th July (Monday) is one of those days, a large and negative move throughout all main markets has pertruded world markets. Also on a larger granularity, over March, April, May FTSE market has steadily increased in value, and a negative trend is clearly emerging during June and July! Dow Jones, DAX, CAC, NYSE, etc... show all the same pattern, not surprising since mass psychology affects every market participant to a degree.

In my opinion, July will with certainty see some decrease of valuation over all major indices. Reasons??! A number of them: Macroeconomic figures, Company outlooks, political, environmental stability and most Technical Analysis points towards investors' uncertainty surrounding recent price advances.

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