Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Tech Companies...

According to news released yesterday, GOOGLE is planning to built an open source operating system under the name GOOGLE Chrome OS (following its successful free Chrome browser). The OS will be based on a UNIX kernel, it will however be build from the ground up. Some speculate this could have a drastic negative effect on Microsoft shares over future years.

GOOGLE certainly represents a very capable and potentially extremely dangerous competitor, especially if it taps into Microsofts' core products' business revenues.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Markets are on a big move!!

Most main markets are very highly correlated (correlation is a statistical measure, it indicates strength of relationship between data). Specifically, the big falls and rises tend to happen in tandem. DAX and CAC, or FTSE and DowJones on a daily basis on average might move by differing magnitude and direction. However, what correltion tells us is that there are some moves that tend to co-occur. A simple analysis of the indices data shows that it is the large moves that tend to co-occur most often.

Today the 6th July (Monday) is one of those days, a large and negative move throughout all main markets has pertruded world markets. Also on a larger granularity, over March, April, May FTSE market has steadily increased in value, and a negative trend is clearly emerging during June and July! Dow Jones, DAX, CAC, NYSE, etc... show all the same pattern, not surprising since mass psychology affects every market participant to a degree.

In my opinion, July will with certainty see some decrease of valuation over all major indices. Reasons??! A number of them: Macroeconomic figures, Company outlooks, political, environmental stability and most Technical Analysis points towards investors' uncertainty surrounding recent price advances.