Shown is the FTSE-100 index over the past 2 years, as I am sure you can gather from the chart without much of Technical Analysis experience, there is now an uptrend / recovery ongoing. Since about July 2009 the capitalisation of UKs top companies increased by about 30%... pretty strong growth if you'd ask me! (actually this isn't growth as such, but the immediate prospect of financial failure probability rapidly having disappeared...)
See the 5 year chart here, to gain a fuller picture of where we are in terms of historical price behaviour.
Conclusion: Speaking from a Technical Analysis perspective, we can expect a rebound and further short term (1-3 month) growth in the market, i.e. 5300 to about 5600 points, thats about 6% growth in the immediate future with a potential to cash in on a good 10% growth in a more mid-term time frame!
Fundamentals aren't so interesting, but to be honest, compared to where we were a year ago (politically, economically,...), things are looking rather good! i.e. 1% economic growth, housing/morgage figures, (+)ve anticipation of general elections, ... on the other hand, the tax cuts are wearing off (VAT back to its old level), threatening taxes & regulation for investment/corporate banks...
...any comments, please feel free, I apologise for the moderation, but with all the spamming going on I am sure you understand. Thanks.
hmmm... this is an interesting analysis but chances are that the 100 day moving average will not support the price, I guess we will see! I've gone long on the index myself and fingers crossed the price will go upwards!!!
ReplyDeletethis is a good reuters article about the current problems facing Britain that might have an impact on its economy.
ReplyDeletehttp://uk.biz.yahoo.com/01022010/325/factbox-key-risks-watch-britain.html
hehe, most of it is soooooo true!
thank you guys, I am glad you found my analysis useful!
ReplyDeletewhen I posted this, we have since seen a Market Rally over the 1st, 2nd, 3rd February - only today 4th we have a consolidation, this can be mostly attributed to the uncertainty surrounding interest rate decissions at 12 o'clock today.
However I do expect the markets to rebound over the next 2 days and resume their upward trend. hope this helps.
Isn't the Market down again?
ReplyDeletePlease see the following finance yahoo link.
ReplyDeleteAs you will see over the 4th & 5th we had to strong down days -3.6%, that was some very strong down action. In my opinion there were 2 main reasons for this:
1st traders were cashing in on their profits over the last few months / days
2nd there was growing concern and nervous feeling of uncertainty surrounding the problems of Greek Debt, etc...
One could also argue to see a Technical Analysis (Charting based) reason of a long trend confirmation uncertainty, but let us leave TA out of this for now.
Either way, the concerns regarding Greece have not materialised (as EU offered support) and the joblessness numbers (came out on the 4th) where two different reports 'contradicted' themselves, it turned out that overal unemployment in US did fall slightly - good news of course.
On the base of this we saw positive growth over the days from 8th to 15th February (with exception of the 12th). This shows that investors are interested to partake in investment for the close future, however since this growth was pretty lean we may have to wait for another 1-2 days of negative movement before the markets take back of to their 5500 levels...
hope this helps!